Turks and Tea Leaves: Turkey Votes 2015

   by  openDemocracy 

Like many others, I am glued to my computer today watching the elections unfold in Turkey.  Living in Canada, I already cast my ballot on May 31st, but my vote, along with potentially some 53 million others is being counted today.  Because of course, this is no ordinary election.

Since 2002, the AKP has won successive elections and gradually increased its grip on the country through the ballot box.  In 2014, the AKP had its strongest showings yet, owing largely to the still disorganized nature of the opposition parties, both in the local and presidential elections.  Not that these elections were the cleanest or the fairest in Turkey’s history, mind you.  Allegations of vote theft, saboteur cats, and all manner of electoral funny business became the hallmark of an AKP trying to maintain its dominance, in spite of the tide of public opinion gradually turning against.  Indeed, after the Gezi Park riots of 2013 and the widespread accusations of corruption that it became quite clear that although the AKP was still winning big, it wasn’t winning easily and not without a little fudging of results.

The AKP, Turkey, and Kobanê: The Enemy of my Enemy is also my Enemy

US B1 bomber conducting airstrikes over Syria

   by  DVIDSHUB 

Anyone such as myself who follows developments from the Middle East is rarely, if ever, bored.  But the recent months have been both gripping and horrifying at the same time, thanks to a new calamity.  No, I’m not talking about the Ebola outbreak that seems poised to spread beyond Africa, but rather an unnatural pestilence that now plagues Iraq and Syria, and seems hell-bent on spreading further.  I’m speaking of course of the pseudo-religious savages of the so-called Islamic State (IS), formerly known as ISIS or ISIL.  IS has been at the forefront of many peoples’ minds, particularly in recent weeks as a result of the heavy fighting in the largely Kurdish Syrian border town of Kobanê (also known as Ayn al-Arab).

Pride Goeth Before a Fall: Why the AKP Could Be Its Own Worst Enemy (Part II)

In my last article, I suggested that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP’s most recent electoral success in the first-ever presidential elections could actually represent the beginning of a period where the AKP turns on itself, with chaos ensuing afterward.  Though it seems unlikely, in the 19 days since the election, there have been subtle and not-so-subtle signs of just that, especially to a trained cynical Turkish eye.

So let’s get down to business.  Logically, there are three potential fracture points within the AKP: the Abdullah Gül-Erdoğan divide; the old guard-new blood divide; and the Erdoğan-Davutoğlu divide.

Pride Goeth Before a Fall: Why the AKP Could Be Its Own Worst Enemy (Part I)

A citizen who voted in the 2014 Turkish presidential election in Istanbul

Turkey’s recent presidential elections were mired in controversy, even by the routinely volatile and bordering on insane standards of Turkish politics.  Even its immediate aftermath didn’t escape controversy and allegations of foul play, which also marked the entire run-up to the election itself on August 10, 2014.  But now that the electioneering is coming to an end, it would appear that new battle lines are being drawn across the Turkish political landscape, even within the previously-thought-to-be-invulnerable AKP.

Showdown for Çankaya Palace: Round One

   by  openDemocracy 

A short while ago, polls opened once again in Turkey for the second time in 5 months.  This time, Turks will be casting their votes in probably one of the most important elections in Turkey’s recent history: the first ever election to choose a president for the country.

The Turkish presidency, traditionally a largely ceremonial position, had until now been a role filled by an individual appointed by the elected parliament, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey or Türkiye Büyük Millet Meclisi (TBMM) in Turkish, though this person held veto power over laws passed by the TBMM. In the past, the office of the president had acted as a check and balance on the authority of the TBMM.  This prevented any one party from amassing too much power, but also regularly created deadlocks in the passing of laws, thus hampering reforms.

When the AKP was elected in 2002, the tenuous balance that had existed previously was turned on its ear, with the party remaining solidly in power in the TBMM, and also holding the presidency through Abdullah Gül since 2007.  This allowed the AKP to pass laws and decrees to benefit itself and its supporters largely unimpeded by the opposition, particularly with once-independent government institutions like the judiciary falling under the party’s control one by one like dominoes.

Deciphering the Russian Bear: An Ottoman Perspective (Part I)

With the conflict in Ukraine having moved beyond Crimea into the eastern part of the country, and with the chilling prospect of a Russian intervention seemingly looming as the Ukrainian military begins to make progress against the separatists, a term thought to be a relic of the past has found its way back onto the lips of writers, journalists, academics and politicians: imperialism.  More to the point, many have called Russia’s involvement in Ukraine imperialism in its most classic form, with places like Mariupol, Slavyansk, and Donetsk becoming household names, at least among geopoliticos.  What’s perplexing, however, is that people seem to be surprised by Russia’s apparently imperialistic ambitions to disrupt, sever, and ultimately annex its neighbour a piece at a time.

   by  Imaginary Museum Projects: News Tableaus 

Who’s the Real Kingmaker in Turkey?

The growing crisis in Iraq and Syria, with the terrorist organization ISIL (or ISIS) and the fear it has been inspiring has been the focus of much of the world’s attention.  With the failure of the US-trained and –equipped Iraqi army in combating this threat to regional stability, the surprise has been the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq and its fighters, the peshmerga.  Almost overnight, the KRG has managed to expand their territory to include the long-sought-after city of Kirkuk, and more importantly has emerged to play a pivotal role in determining the future of both Iraq AND Syria.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

   by  theglobalpanorama 

If the Kurds of Iraq are being portrayed as the kingmakers of that country, so too are the Kurds of Turkey.  Almost slipping under the radar, Turkey, one of the region’s most powerful economies and military powerhouse, is about to enter into its first ever election to choose a president by popular vote, scheduled to be held on August 10, 2014 (with a potential runoff vote on August 24^th).  Oddly enough, although everyone expects him to run for the position, Turkey’s notoriously short-tempered Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has not yet officially entered the race.  Turkey’s current President Abdullah Gül doesn’t look set to run for a second term, effectively opening the door for Erdoğan, at least from within the ruling AKP.  But Erdoğan’s pugnacious style has been hurting him at the polls and internationally, little by little, with foreign policy gaffes, polarizing domestic politicking, and allegations of corruption and subsequent alleged cover-ups.  Having already alienated many of the more liberal voters who had originally voted for his party over the past 12 years, most clearly demonstrated by the widespread Gezi protests during the summer of 2013, and with his support seeming to have been distilled to its core in the March 30, 2014 local elections, Erdoğan has been courting the country’s Kurdish voters in an effort to make up the difference in his votes to secure the 50%+1 that he’d need to win a first-round knockout victory.

So the Kurds of Turkey, as heterogeneous as they are as a community, seem set to be the kingmakers in Turkey.  So says much of the media that’s covering the election, in any case.  The key element that most pundits seem to miss is that Erdoğan’s success over the past 12 years has been as much due to his ability to divide his opponents’ votes or at least play off existing divisions, as his own ability to use the tense divisions in Turkish society to win the votes of the historically disaffected and marginalized in the country.